23 Jun 2015
This report examines the impact Brexit would have not only on the UK, but also on other countries in the EU.
The key findings of the report are:
- Deep trading, investment and financial links combined with a shared liberal outlook means the Netherlands ranks as the member state most exposed to Brexit.
- The fragmentation of Europe’s financial sector would increase the cost of raising finance for European businesses, with the costs ultimately borne by European households.
- The balance of influence in Europe would shift from the liberalising north to the interventionist south, with Berlin more exposed in policy debates and finding it harder to block initiatives.
- There is a risk of ‘political contagion’ from Brexit as it could fuel Euroscepticism elsewhere, particularly if the UK is seen to benefit in politically sensitive areas like migration.
- Brexit would mean years of uncertainty and wrangling to establish a new relationship between Britain and the EU, which would be damaging for businesses trading with and invested in the UK.
- All member states will feel the impact of Brexit as Europe will lose international esteem and foreign policy influence and have less leverage in trade negotiations.
The views expressed in this note can be attributed to the named author(s) only.