Blogs

Offshore Britain?

Author: 
27 Oct 2016
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Region: 
UK

According to one major newspaper, the UK Government is developing a “nuclear” Brexit negotiating threat in the form of a corporation tax cut to 10%. The logic goes that the prospect of an aggressively low-tax “offshore” UK on the doorstep would scare the EU into accommodating British preferences for the future UK-EU relationship. But as with all nuclear deterrents, the question boils down to one of credibility: could and would the UK actually deliver a CT rate of 10%?

Spain will have a new government, but how much will it be able to do?

26 Oct 2016
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Region: 
EU/Eurozone

After 10 months of political uncertainty and two general elections, Spain will now get a government, but one that will be severely constrained. Incumbent interim centre-right Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will now face, and win, an investiture vote in the Congress of Deputies at the end of the week. This follows the decision by the centre-left Socialist Party at the weekend, who held the balance of power, to reluctantly abstain in the vote. Faced with the possibility of a third round of elections, the Socialists decided to unilaterally abstain, without any negotiations or policy concessions from the governing People’s Party. While Mariano Rajoy will now govern as a minority – with nearly 50 seats fewer than his party had when it governed as a majority – the prospect of significant policy change remains unlikely. 

Is Donald Trump about to become an exception to the ‘October 31 rule’?

Author: 
21 Oct 2016
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Region: 
Americas

Donald Trump’s performance in the third and final presidential debate seems unlikely to do much to stem his plummeting popularity. It is not unusual for presidential campaigns to be tawdry affairs but the last couple of weeks has seen the race between Trump and Hillary Clinton shock even seasoned political commentators. The clip of audio revealing Trump’s amused commentary on how his status allowed him to grope women has been followed by a slew of further accusations and now an apparent willingness to refuse to accept the election outcome. 

CETA: What’s the matter with Wallonia?

21 Oct 2016
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Region: 
EU/Eurozone

This has been a tricky week for EU trade policy. Up until last Friday, EU governments were largely expected to unanimously give their final greenlight in this week’s Council meeting for the signing and provisional implementation of CETA. However, this week the minister president of Belgium’s Wallonia Region Paul Magnette de facto ordered the Belgian federal government to vote against the deal. The Canadians have just walked out of attempts to patch up an agreement in time for the 28th October formal signing at the EU-Canada summit. Clearly the ability of little Wallonia to halt the ratification of the EU’s flagship FTA in 2016 is an issue. The question will be how to resolve it.

Pravin Gordhan and what happens next in South Africa

21 Oct 2016
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Region: 
Africa

In his time, Pravin Gordhan has played many roles: pharmacist; anti-apartheid activist; prisoner; chief taxman; and finance minister not once, but twice. In South Africa’s current political morality play, he is cast as the martyr – fending off what many see as politically motivated accusations of fraud from the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) to prevent him exposing unsavoury dealings between President Jacob Zuma and the Gupta family. What happens next will almost certainly have big consequences for the ANC and South Africa. 

Marmite for banks

Author: 
14 Oct 2016
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Region: 
UK

When British Prime Minister Theresa May addressed her Conservative Party conference earlier this month she railed against the side-effects of super-low interest rates and bemoaned the cost to savers. She promised to fix the problem “because that’s what a Conservative Government can do” raising concerns about whether a government that says it is “prepared to intervene” might be about to squeeze the independence of the Bank of England. That is most likely not the message she intended to send. Somewhat ironically, however, her market moving speech, and the economic fall-out from the Brexit vote, may help to produce the conditions that allows interest rates to rise.

The 100,000 person question

Author: 
13 Oct 2016
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Region: 
UK

Immigration is the simmering political issue at the heart of Brexit. Much of the debate has focused on how far the UK can reclaim control of EU migration into the UK, while retaining some form of participation in, or preferential access to, the single market. But what if we assume that full migration policy is back in the hands of the UK government. How does it meet the palpable public expectation it has created?

In the Brexit divorce, who gets custody of the EU’s FTAs?

12 Oct 2016
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Region: 
EU/Eurozone

Like many divorces, Brexit is going to be a custody battle of sorts. UK Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox has warned (via his preferred UK newspapers) his EU counterparts that attempts to prevent the UK inheriting a large number of FTAs signed on the UK’s behalf by the EU could be met with retaliation by those EU trading partners. This is, in essence, the question of who gets custody of the EU’s FTAs after Brexit.