Blogs

Pravin Gordhan and what happens next in South Africa

Author: 
21 Oct 2016
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Region: 
Africa

In his time, Pravin Gordhan has played many roles: pharmacist; anti-apartheid activist; prisoner; chief taxman; and finance minister not once, but twice. In South Africa’s current political morality play, he is cast as the martyr – fending off what many see as politically motivated accusations of fraud from the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) to prevent him exposing unsavoury dealings between President Jacob Zuma and the Gupta family. What happens next will almost certainly have big consequences for the ANC and South Africa. 

Marmite for banks

Author: 
14 Oct 2016
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Region: 
UK

When British Prime Minister Theresa May addressed her Conservative Party conference earlier this month she railed against the side-effects of super-low interest rates and bemoaned the cost to savers. She promised to fix the problem “because that’s what a Conservative Government can do” raising concerns about whether a government that says it is “prepared to intervene” might be about to squeeze the independence of the Bank of England. That is most likely not the message she intended to send. Somewhat ironically, however, her market moving speech, and the economic fall-out from the Brexit vote, may help to produce the conditions that allows interest rates to rise.

The 100,000 person question

Author: 
13 Oct 2016
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Region: 
UK

Immigration is the simmering political issue at the heart of Brexit. Much of the debate has focused on how far the UK can reclaim control of EU migration into the UK, while retaining some form of participation in, or preferential access to, the single market. But what if we assume that full migration policy is back in the hands of the UK government. How does it meet the palpable public expectation it has created?

In the Brexit divorce, who gets custody of the EU’s FTAs?

Author: 
12 Oct 2016
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Region: 
EU/Eurozone

Like many divorces, Brexit is going to be a custody battle of sorts. UK Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox has warned (via his preferred UK newspapers) his EU counterparts that attempts to prevent the UK inheriting a large number of FTAs signed on the UK’s behalf by the EU could be met with retaliation by those EU trading partners. This is, in essence, the question of who gets custody of the EU’s FTAs after Brexit.

EU tuition fees post-Brexit: feast or famine?

Author: 
28 Sep 2016
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Region: 
UK

In a week when a UK university, Oxford, was crowned the best in the world, it’s worth reminding ourselves that Brexit gives the British higher education sector a lot to chew on. The potential loss of research funding and restricted access to top EU talent are headline concerns, but here’s a different question: what happens once EU students become classified as ‘international’? Does the changing fee dynamic mean feast or famine for UK universities?

Brexit and the audio-visual sector – facing up to life outside the single market

Author: 
26 Sep 2016
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Region: 
EU/Eurozone

As Whitehall limbers up for the UK’s exit negotiations from the European Union by establishing new departments and recruiting new staff, it will be some time before the government reaches its full capacity for managing the negotiations. Before this point, however, fundamental decisions will need to be taken about the direction of the negotiations, such as whether to continue participating in the EU’s single market and the likely direction of the UK’s new immigration policy. In this period, economic sectors face a competition for advocacy to influence the limited capacity of Whitehall. Much of the focus has so far been on the sectors perceived to be most exposed to exiting the EU such as banks and automotives. As delegates meet tomorrow for the Royal Television Society conference, the interests of the audio-visual sector will be at the fore.

Support for outward investment: a questionable solution to a misdiagnosed problem

Author: 
26 Sep 2016
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Region: 
UK

International Trade Secretary Liam Fox slipped out an important change in policy earlier this month when he told Conservative MPs that from now on the government would give the same weight to supporting outward investment as it does to inward investment. His concern is the deterioration in the current account. Inward investment may bring jobs, but foreign companies want a return on their investment which, according to Fox, is a problem, unless there is a matching flow coming in the opposite direction. Leaving aside questions about the economic rationale for the policy change, does the data suggest the government’s concerns are justified in the first place?

Will the EU's new cybersecurity law prevent another Yahoo?

Author: 
23 Sep 2016
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Region: 
EU/Eurozone

The data security world has been rocked by Yahoo’s revelation that it had been the victim of a “state sponsored” hack leading to the exposure of 500 million user accounts. Beyond the sheer scale of the breach, its significance lies in the apparent lack of transparency with users, who were only notified this week when the incident is reported to have occurred in 2014. This opacity does not appear limited to Yahoo’s customers since even Verizon, which is acquiring Yahoo for $4.8 billion, has issued a public statement clarifying that it had only received “limited information and understanding of the impact”.