Per a Global Counsel report, existing EU regulations would make it harder for London to serve European markets, particularly for retail banking and euro trading. The UK would also face the huge challenge of renegotiating the existing EU deals that would no longer apply.
During the bruising referendum campaign, a who’s-who of major London business people and politicians emphatically backed Remain.
"London has prospered more from globalization than almost anywhere in the world, whereas many people elsewhere in the U.K. feel they haven’t," said Gregor Irwin, the chief economist at consulting firm Global Counsel. "That divide is vividly on display today."
The United Kingdom exiting the European Union could cause political instability in the country and boost Scotland's independence aspirations, a recent report by a London-based strategic advisory firm found.
On Monday, Global Counsel issued a report titled "The Consequences of the EU Referendum," which predicts the possible effects of a referendum on EU membership both in case of Brexit and if UK voters decide to stay in the 28-nation bloc.
The concerns over Brexit tax implications are reflected in a new analysis of the Financial Times-Stock Exchange 100's 2015 annual reports, by advisory firm Global Counsel.
The analysis, issued June 14, shows that most senior business leaders consider Brexit the most serious political risk their global corporations face.
If Britain opts to leave the European Union in next week’s referendum, the repercussions will be felt far and wide, casting doubts on PM David Cameron’s leadership and emboldening other European nations to follow suit.
No one can say with confidence what the outcome of Britain’s referendum on Europe will be. Whatever the result, we can be certain it will leave a lasting impact on British politics and the nation’s relationships around the world.
Britain will have to pay a price, if it exits the European Union — if for no other reason than to send a warning message to other member countries that may consider leaving the bloc.
But leaving the European pact and shaping new agreements with EU countries could take 10 years, especially if relations between Brussels and London are fraught, argued Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel, a political risk consultancy.
The European Central bank (ECB) is likely to quickly challenge London’s status as the eurozone’s largest hub for the clearing of euro-denominated trades if the EU referendum goes against UK membership – but the move, which would be seen as highly political, would be beset with legal challenges.
The ECB believes clearing and settlement is a critical piece of market infrastructure that it should oversee for financial stability purposes, explains Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel.
Tax is one of the biggest fears for FTSE 100 companies, with businesses constantly wary of how BEPS could change international tax rules, a report from Global Counsel has revealed.
Dealing with political risk: What FTSE-100 companies say, found that tax accounts for over three quarters of fiscal risks for constituents of the FTSE 100.
Article 50 calls for a two year negotiation period, which could then be extended by the European Council.
British advisory firm Global Counsel expects the period of uncertainty to last "ten years or more."
Looking at the 2015 annual reports of every member of the FTSE 100, only 26 — just over a quarter — mention Brexit.
Global Counsel, an advisory group that analysed the 100 reports, said the quality of reporting on political risks was variable, “with an excessive tendency to report risks in a generic form that provided investors and other stakeholders with little information to evaluate their importance”.