Media

In the Media

Bloomberg View | Losing the U.K. wouldn't be so bad for Europe

22 Apr 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

In a 2015 paper, the strategic advisory firm Global Counsel wrote that, without the U.K. present, "it would become harder to block illiberal measures. Moreover, there would likely be a new regulatory dynamic."

The firm pointed out, however, that the EU would still be pressured to liberalize its policies because it would be competing with the U.K. for investment.

Borderlex | Dutch Ukraine referendum: EU ability to sign international treaties at stake

8 Apr 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
Russia & CIS

The EU is set to continue with business as usual in its dealings with Ukraine after the Dutch no vote in a non-binding referendum on the EU Ukraine Association Agreement on Wednesday (6 April).

Daniel Capparelli, an analyst with the consultancy Global Counsel in London told BNE Intellinews: “Rutte will likely push for additional assurances from Brussels that the agreement may not be interpreted as a step towards EU membership, and a renewed commitment from Kyiv to accelerate the implementation pace of its reform program."

Reuters | Brexit and Britain - what would it mean for UK trade?

15 Mar 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

Only a few of the 55 British officials in the European Commission's trade department actually work on trade deals. "Britain's trade negotiators would need technical and legal experience, which is accumulated over many years, and they would be stretched by the need to negotiate simultaneously on multiple fronts," said Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel, a consultancy firm led by Britain's former EU trade chief Peter Mandelson. "No country has ever tried to do this before."

Adam Smith Institute | Ten questions for the “Leave” campaign

8 Mar 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

Let’s ignore the fake alternatives of HMG’s recent papers - the scare stories about the UK’s position with third countries. We can’t however, ignore the fact that the “leavers” need to come up with a crisp account of what they expect the electorate to vote for. Let’s orient ourselves by looking at the table of alternatives below.

This table is largely based on material from Global Counsel, a “stay” outfit, but it succeeds in illustrating the political character of the alternatives.

Russian View | Foreign companies at crossroads

1 Mar 2016
|
Region: 
Russia & CIS

Russia is now entering its longest economic downturn since the fall of the Soviet Union. Post-Soviet Russia has been characterised by frequent highs and lows, but those shifts in sentiment have always swung back swiftly.

For foreign investors in Russia this meant riding out a short storm, cutting their cloth accordingly and waiting for the upturn that was just around the corner as the laws of commodity driven supply and demand righted the ship.

MoneyWeek | Trade outside the EU – can Britain prosper alone?

27 Feb 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

Much depends on the deals we can negotiate. According to Dr Gregor Irwin, former chief economist at the Foreign Office, in a long report on Brexit for advisory firm Global Counsel, the UK’s trade policy priorities are in reality unlikely to be much different from the EU’s, but leaving would give it less leverage and make it a lower priority trade partner than the EU for other major economies. He argues that size matters more than ever, given that trade negotiations are increasingly bilateral or regional, rather than multilateral.

Bloomberg | Osborne one laughing now as HSBC validates ‘New Settlement’

15 Feb 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

At a packed lunch in Davos last month, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne drew laughter from captains of U.K. industry when he thanked HSBC Holdings Plc Chief Executive Officer Stuart Gulliver for his opening speech.

“This is a relief for the chancellor,” said Gregor Irwin, a former Treasury official and now chief economist at Global Counsel, a London-based consultancy. “It would have led to questions about his judgment had they left.”

City A.M. | HSBC's Paris pledge reveals Brexit's hidden risks for the City

Author: 
15 Feb 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

The truth is, we don't know what it would mean for the City if the United Kingdom votes for Brexit.

There are too many uncertainties. That's one reason why HSBC has said today that it could shift as many as 1,000 jobs from London to Paris if the UK leaves the EU.

But the impact could be greater than the Big Bang, and it is time for everyone in the City to start thinking through what it might mean for their business.

Financial Times | Global groups pay a heavy price for China’s slowdown

19 Jan 2016
|
Region: 
Asia

Markets around the world have been roiled this month by uncertainty about China’s economic growth and the ineffective reaction by local authorities to the turmoil.

Specific companies are also paying the penalty — even if only temporary — of their big bets on China. Global Counsel, the political consultancy, estimates that half Volkswagen’s revenues are derived from the country.

WSJ | Europe’s fractious politics loom as threat to markets

3 Jan 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

An EU exit would be negative for the U.K. economy, with trade and investment hit, Moody’s Investors Service said in a December report. The impact would also be significant for the rest of the EU, according to a June report by Global Counsel, an advisory firm chaired by Labour politician and former European Commissioner for Trade Peter Mandelson. Among other things, financing costs would likely rise across Europe and there would be wider political consequences as other anti-EU forces gained encouragement, the report said.