Media

In the Media

Russian View | Foreign companies at crossroads

1 Mar 2016
|
Region: 
Russia & CIS

Russia is now entering its longest economic downturn since the fall of the Soviet Union. Post-Soviet Russia has been characterised by frequent highs and lows, but those shifts in sentiment have always swung back swiftly.

For foreign investors in Russia this meant riding out a short storm, cutting their cloth accordingly and waiting for the upturn that was just around the corner as the laws of commodity driven supply and demand righted the ship.

MoneyWeek | Trade outside the EU – can Britain prosper alone?

27 Feb 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

Much depends on the deals we can negotiate. According to Dr Gregor Irwin, former chief economist at the Foreign Office, in a long report on Brexit for advisory firm Global Counsel, the UK’s trade policy priorities are in reality unlikely to be much different from the EU’s, but leaving would give it less leverage and make it a lower priority trade partner than the EU for other major economies. He argues that size matters more than ever, given that trade negotiations are increasingly bilateral or regional, rather than multilateral.

Bloomberg | Osborne one laughing now as HSBC validates ‘New Settlement’

15 Feb 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

At a packed lunch in Davos last month, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne drew laughter from captains of U.K. industry when he thanked HSBC Holdings Plc Chief Executive Officer Stuart Gulliver for his opening speech.

“This is a relief for the chancellor,” said Gregor Irwin, a former Treasury official and now chief economist at Global Counsel, a London-based consultancy. “It would have led to questions about his judgment had they left.”

City A.M. | HSBC's Paris pledge reveals Brexit's hidden risks for the City

Author: 
15 Feb 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

The truth is, we don't know what it would mean for the City if the United Kingdom votes for Brexit.

There are too many uncertainties. That's one reason why HSBC has said today that it could shift as many as 1,000 jobs from London to Paris if the UK leaves the EU.

But the impact could be greater than the Big Bang, and it is time for everyone in the City to start thinking through what it might mean for their business.

Financial Times | Global groups pay a heavy price for China’s slowdown

19 Jan 2016
|
Region: 
Asia

Markets around the world have been roiled this month by uncertainty about China’s economic growth and the ineffective reaction by local authorities to the turmoil.

Specific companies are also paying the penalty — even if only temporary — of their big bets on China. Global Counsel, the political consultancy, estimates that half Volkswagen’s revenues are derived from the country.

WSJ | Europe’s fractious politics loom as threat to markets

3 Jan 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

An EU exit would be negative for the U.K. economy, with trade and investment hit, Moody’s Investors Service said in a December report. The impact would also be significant for the rest of the EU, according to a June report by Global Counsel, an advisory firm chaired by Labour politician and former European Commissioner for Trade Peter Mandelson. Among other things, financing costs would likely rise across Europe and there would be wider political consequences as other anti-EU forces gained encouragement, the report said.

Financial Times | Brexit may suit hedge funds, but others should weigh the risks

4 Nov 2015
|
Region: 
UK

Post-Brexit, UK hedge funds and private equity companies would face a relatively easier test than others if they want to continue providing services to customers in continental Europe. The key test, says the London-based advisory group Global Counsel, is the “equivalence” of regulation in the UK compared with international standards, such as those set by the Financial Stability Board.

Financial Times | Foreign groups eye scaling back Russian operations

19 Oct 2015
|
Region: 
Russia & CIS

Some of the world’s largest multinational companies will scale back operations in Russia unless the business environment improves as sanctions, low oil prices and volatile public policy unsettle even the most experienced international investors.
After 18 tumultuous months during which the country has been hit by trade embargoes alongside a plummeting oil price and currency, Russia faces a “critical fork in the road” with more groups likely to step back from the market, says advisory group Global Counsel.

The Moscow Times | Foreign investors complain about Russia's unpredictable laws

19 Oct 2015
|
Region: 
Russia & CIS

The Foreign Investment Advisory Council members — companies like Carlsberg, BP, Siemens and Ford that are among the oldest and largest investors in Russia — are unlikely to pull back from the country. But they may not be willing to endure a downturn for ever. Global Counsel, a Britain-based advisory group, said on Monday that some of the biggest foreign investors in Russia could curtail their activities in the country if economic conditions did not stabilize during the coming 18 months.

The Times | English votes could spark another Scots referendum

27 Apr 2015
|
Region: 
UK

The SNP could use Conservative plans for “English votes for English laws” to demand another referendum on Scottish independence, former chief economist to the Foreign Office Gregor Irwin has said.

In an analysis for Global Counsel consultancy, he added: “The Nationalists have said they will not call a second referendum . . . unless there has been a ‘material change’ to justify this.