A new report commissioned by the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) and the National Association of British and Irish Flour Millers (NABIM) from Global Counsel has revealed that the UK's food and drink manufacturing sector could face a hidden 'hard Brexit' once the UK leaves the EU as a result of rules of origin.
In just a few weeks, Britain will begin what could be the country’s most momentous negotiations since joining the EU in the 1970s: talks on how it will trade with Europe for decades to come.
Regulations, frequently the cause of non-tariffs barriers to trade, still often differ. It is also much more difficult than within the EU to ensure that both sides still stick to the deal. “The fundamental difference is that FTAs are agreements between autonomous regulatory jurisdictions that want to stay autonomous,” says Stephen Adams, a former trade adviser to the European Commission.
The term ‘grey rhino’ was coined by American economist Michelle Wucker as a metaphor for looming, high probability events with potentially catastrophic consequences, prefaced by clear signs which people tend to ignore.
In China, the term (which usually refers to events) has been adapted as a label for a number of large, privately-owned companies, such as Anbang, which have gone on a debt-fuelled foreign spending spree in recent years.
Eurosceptics in the UK’s Conservative party were marking an apparent Brexit victory on Monday after Downing Street said that Britain was “categorically leaving the customs union” while considering two options set out in a “future partnership paper” on customs published last August, both of which have significant shortcomings.
Stephen Adams, a former EU trade negotiator now working at Global Counsel, says this would be “technically phenomenally complicated” and it had another big problem: “It would probably be a bigger undertaking for the EU than the UK.”
Davos, a tiny town in the Swiss mountains, has hosted the annual World Economic Forum for the past 46 years. The rich, powerful and famous mingle over sessions and networking with the stated aim of improving the world.
Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel, says "there's inequality between countries and within countries... The global economic system is certainly working for some and it has delivered over the past 10 years an improvement in the living standards of many people. But there are real questions about just how widely shared the benefits are."
Liam Fox, the trade secretary, will legislate next month to take back powers from Brussels to deal with trade disputes, in a move that will force Westminster politicians to grapple with exporters such as China.
“Once British politicians are completely on the hook for these decisions, they will have to think about how they balance the consumer and producer interests in a new way,” said Stephen Adams, a former EU trade official who is now a senior director at Global Counsel, the advisory firm.
The European Union started this year by announcing a global trade offensive to counter rising U.S. protectionism. Now the bloc faces an uphill battle to prove it can deliver.
“When the EU and the U.S. are not aligned, you have a much more fragmented landscape, with no clear leader, and it’s much harder to drive policy,” said Stephen Adams, a former EU trade official now with U.K.-based advisory firm Global Counsel. “The ambition can leak out of the process very quickly.”
Britain’s banking industry has called for a post-Brexit trade deal to allow financial services professionals to continue travelling freely across Europe on assignments of up to three years.
The proposal, coming shortly after David Davis, the Brexit secretary, promised to seek a similar travel regime for bankers, is one of several recommendations in a report to be published on Thursday by UK Finance, the industry body, law firm Clifford Chance and consultants Global Counsel.
City A.M. | Momentum gathers behind mutual recognition to govern City after Brexit as UK Finance publishes second report backing ambitious FTA for financial services
Momentum is gathering behind mutual recognition and a free trade agreement (FTA) as the basis for the City after Brexit, with a second report arguing it is the best possible route.
The blueprint, written by UK Finance with support from law firms Clifford Chance and Global Counsel, argues for a "bold and ambitious" FTA for financial services after leaving the European Union, which will be based on mutual recognition. Our "unparalleled" position of convergence offers the UK and EU an opportunity to create "a robust and flexible market access model", it claims.
The European Union’s landmark agreement with Cuba entered into force this week, marking a new chapter that aims for increased trade and diplomacy between the EU and the Latin American region.
“The EU-Mercosur deal would send the same signal as the EU-Japan political agreement announced over the summer — that while the US administration draws inwards and retreats from trade liberalisation, the rest of the world forges ahead,” senior trade associate at advisory Global Counsel, Guillaume Ferlet, tells GTR.