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In the Media

Financial Times | UK political risks cast pall over FTSE 100

2 Jul 2017
|
Regions: 
UK,
Multilateral

The UK represents the single biggest source of political risk for Britain’s largest listed companies even excluding challenges associated with Brexit, according to an analysis of the annual reports of FTSE 100 firms. 

Nearly half of the UK-based risks facing companies concerned public policies, according to advisory firm Global Counsel, which analysed the reports. Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel, said there had been a big increase in “soft” political risks around public policy, fiscal policy and legal and ethical risks.
 

Dow Jones | Baffled by Brexit: with so much unknown, London bankers struggle to plan

29 Jun 2017
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

The City of London is back in the dark over Brexit after this month's U.K. general election muddied the outlook for the U.K.'s departure from the European Union. Banking chiefs here have been left to wonder whether to accelerate plans to move operations into the EU.

The likelihood of the U.K. crashing out of the EU without a deal has increased, but equally so has the chance Britain could push for closer ties with the trading bloc, analysts and bankers say. "A lot is open to debate again," says Stephen Adams, a partner at consultancy Global Counsel.

Euractiv | Report maps UK’s ‘uncertain’ energy landscape post-Brexit

28 Jun 2017
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

As Britain looks set to leave the EU’s Single Market, business consultants have attempted to map out the numerous challenges facing the energy sector after Brexit, making the case for a transition phase.

There is a “cliff-edge” scenario under which the UK abruptly leaves the EU without any transitional arrangement, an outcome described as “unlikely” but not impossible. “In reality, both the UK and EU would see such an outcome as an historic failure and will make great efforts to avoid it,” says Matthew Duhan from Global Counsel, one of the authors of the report.

City A.M. | Brexit gives the UK a chance to rethink energy policy, but business must stay at the forefront of negotiations

27 Jun 2017
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

Britain should use Brexit as an opportunity to rethink some aspects of its long-term energy policy, a new report suggests.

“The most likely outcome for the UK’s energy system is continued physical linkage to the internal energy market, through a bilateral agreement on energy, either forming part of, or ‘flanking’, a wider free trade deal. But there is a long way to go to secure such agreement” said Matthew Duhan, energy lead at Global Counsel.

Financial Times | Brexit forces some US banks to consider shifting funds out of UK

20 Jun 2017
|
Regions: 
UK,
Americas

Some of the biggest US financial groups including Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citigroup, are examining whether to move transactions out of London to rival hubs because of Brexit.

But reducing the funds they hold in the UK could have consequences for their presence in the country — including staffing. “From a supervisory perspective what matters is aligning the risk taking, the management and the money (both in the form of capital and revenues),” says Stephen Adams, senior director at the consultancy Global Counsel.

CNN Money | Big Oil wants to tax itself and give cash to Americans

20 Jun 2017

Major oil companies including ExxonMobil, BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Total backed a carbon tax proposal on Tuesday that has been gaining traction in Washington.

"Viewed in glorious isolation from the rest of the world, it has a lot going for it," said Gregor Irwin, chief economist at strategic advisory firm Global Counsel. "But as soon as you start looking at how they propose to make it work... it becomes really complicated and really messy." Irwin said that it would, for example, be hard to calculate fair carbon taxes on imports ranging from oil to cars to semiconductors.

CNN Money | Trump could start a trade war by ditching the Paris climate accord

1 Jun 2017
|
Regions: 
UK,
Americas,
Multilateral

President Trump has risked starting a trade war by deciding to pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate accord. However, any tax or tariff imposed on U.S. firms would be a logistical and political challenge. "Carbon tariffs are a great idea in the classroom... [but] it's harder to translate into practical policy," said Gregor Irwin, chief economist at strategic advisory firm Global Counsel.

The Straits Times | British old guard sees wisdom in Singapore way

22 May 2017
|
Regions: 
UK,
Asia

British politician and business figure Paul Myners has faced many challenges in a glittering career, but the ones posed by Brexit and the Trump presidency are proving more testing than most.

He believes Global Counsel, a consulting firm on policy and regulatory risks, will do more to help companies and investors navigate the choppy waters of populist politics across the world. Many people in the region - which Global Counsel serves out of its Singapore office - are trying to make sense of what has occurred in Britain, long a favoured destination to live, study, work and invest.

The Register | Drugs, vodka, Volvo: The Scandinavian answer to Britain's future new border

11 May 2017
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

The UK and EU both want to retain a "soft" border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland by retaining the Common Travel Area agreement.

But controls will be required, according to Stephen Adams, a trade policy expert and consultant for advisory firm Global Counsel. “If you’re leaving the customs union, if you’re leaving the external tariff of the EU, if you’re leaving the free movement zone for goods, all of which the UK plans to do, you have no choice but to have a hard border of some kind. You can’t pretend that line will not be there,” he told The Reg.

Al Jazeera English | The Economics of Brexit

22 Apr 2017
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

The UK is holding a snap general election in June, one which is shaping up to be all about Brexit. UK Prime Minister Theresa May said an early election was the only way to guarantee political stability as Britain negotiates its way out of the European Union.

Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel - which advises corporations around the world on political risk - tells us why policy uncertainty is likely to hang over investment decisions in the UK.