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Global Trade Review | Brexit decision adds uncertainty for businesses

25 Jan 2017
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

The UK Supreme Court has ruled that an act of parliament must be passed before the UK government can withdraw from the European Union. The move adds a further process to the Brexit plight and throws more uncertainty into the picture for businesses.

“Passing this bill in the House of Commons should be relatively straight forward. It’s not yet clear how much difficulty the government will have passing the bill in the House of Lords,” chief economist at Global Counsel, Gregor Irwin tells GTR.

CNN | Trump says he wants a U.K. trade deal. Don't hold your breath

23 Jan 2017
|
Regions: 
UK,
Americas

The new U.S. administration has promised to put the U.K. at the front of the queue for a trade deal.

"A trade agreement with the U.K. is unlikely to be a priority for the new U.S. administration, no matter what is said at the Trump-May press conference," said Gregor Irwin, chief economist at the strategic advisory firm, Global Counsel. "Domestic priorities and campaign promises will always come first."

Bloomberg | May set to defy EU by opening pre-Brexit global trade talks

23 Jan 2017
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

U.K. officials are preparing to fire the starting gun on trade negotiations with countries outside the European Union within months, defying warnings from the bloc that such action would be illegal.

“EU rules mean the U.K. cannot legally begin negotiating a trade deal with the US before the U.K. leaves the EU,” said Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel in London. Defying the EU would risk “further souring the relationship with Brussels just as the Brexit negotiations are starting,” he said.

 

Global Trade Review | Brexit means “bold and ambitious”

18 Jan 2017
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

Prime minister Theresa May announced a “bold and ambitious” trade plan for the UK this week as she finally outlined the country’s strategy for exiting the European Union.

“I don’t think anything about the policy substance was particularly surprising. In many ways we’ve been wondering why we haven’t heard it before now,” chief economist at advisory firm Global Counsel, Gregor Irwin, tells GTR.

CNN | Britain gambles on free trade deal with Europe

17 Jan 2017
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

May says she wants the "freest possible trade in goods and services" between the two, but EU leaders have made it clear that Brexit Britain can't have the same access to markets it enjoyed as an EU member.

"Even if her negotiators do an extremely good job... there are going to be more barriers to trade," said Gregor Irwin, chief economist at the strategic advisory firm, Global Counsel.

Wall Street Journal | UK’s Brexit committee adds to pressure on Prime Minister May

13 Jan 2017
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

Prime Minister Theresa May is coming under increasing pressure from lawmakers to provide more details on her vision for Britain’s exit from the European Union.

Stephen Adams, a partner at consultancy Global Counsel, said Mrs. May has been giving herself room to maneuver. “I don’t think that it’s very productive to try and read between the prime minister’s lines, partly because there’s so few of them, and there’s a risk of finding something there that isn’t there,” he said.

Bloomberg | Brexit Bulletin: 'Muddled Thinking'

4 Jan 2017
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

Change Britain’s report Tuesday that the U.K. will gain £450 million each week and generate 400,00 new jobs if it leaves the single market and customs union came under immediate fire.

Simon Tilford of the Center for European Reform called the pressure group’s research “misleading and dishonest,” while Gregor Irwin of Global Counsel labelled it “flawed and incomplete.” Irwin said the research ignored the £1.4 billion paid to non-public sector organizations such as universities and the £0.8 billion of payments to the EU for development.

Al Jazeera English | India's growth prospects for 2017

24 Dec 2016
|
Regions: 
UK,
Asia

India's economy has sped ahead of the UK's's for the first time in over a century, due to the slump in the value of British sterling versus the US dollar. While global rankings are looking up for India, its people are suffering on the ground, because of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's controversial decision to demonitise the 500 and 1,000 rupee bank notes. Is this due to Brexit or is the Indian economy actually surpassing that of the UK's? And what does this mean for bilateral trade post-Brexit? Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel, looks at the impact of these developments.

The Straits Times | China doesn't want firms to be 'ATMs' to enrich others

Author: 
13 Dec 2016
|
Region: 
Asia

China is about to take measures to curb the wave of foreign acquisitions by Chinese companies that has grown rapidly over the last 18 months.

Draft policy papers released online at the end of last month outlined a new policy whereby government approval would be required for foreign acquisitions valued at more than US$10 billion (S$14.3 billion), or US$1 billion if the target was considered to be outside the acquirer's core business.

New York Times | Tied to Europe, Britain’s car industry is vulnerable after ‘Brexit’

8 Dec 2016
|
Regions: 
EU/Eurozone,
UK

Britain’s automotive industry, once ailing and plagued by strikes, now hums with the vibrancy of a global manufacturing hub. But the level of integration, previously lauded, has made the carmakers especially vulnerable after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.

“The car industry really did take the prospectus of the E.U. at face value,” said Stephen Adams, a partner at Global Counsel, a political risk firm in London. “It relies on the free circulation of goods in the E.U. not just to sell products but to make products.”