Media

An upcoming World Trade Organization deadline is offering European steel producers and other manufacturers an opportunity to lobby for a framework that would allow for higher duties on Chinese goods.

Most likely, the EU will modify the lesser duty rule, resulting in higher duties on imports from China, said Stephen Adams, a partner at London-based consulting firm Global Counsel LLP.

On Dec. 11, the European Union could grant China “market economy status,” making it harder under WTO rules for the EU to protect its industries from what it deems as unfair trade practices by Beijing.

The effort poses risks for companies that have outsourced parts of their supply chain to China, according to Stephen Adams, a partner at Global Counsel LLP, a London-based consulting firm. “When you have outsourced…to China, you see duties as a cost factor and not as protection,” he said.

London is confident it has a strong hand — the question is how to use it. The calculations are like no other negotiation; even trade talks are a poor guide, as they typically involve willing partners aiming for future liberalisation.

“Brexit is a completely different dynamic,” said Stephen Adams of the Global Counsel advisory group. “You have an unwilling partner on the EU side. The aim is not hypothetical new market access but determining how far to roll back the liberalisation of billions of euros in trade that is already flowing.”

It's estimated that leaving the EU will cost Britain $280m a week over the next five years. In the first budget since Brexit, UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond downgraded his 2017 economic forecast and said the national debt would grow. In fact, it will balloon to above 90% of the UK's gross domestic product. That will wipe out any savings made from not having to pay into the EU's budget. Will the new budget help the so-called JAM families, those households "just about managing" to make ends meet? Gregor Irwin, chief economist at the Global Counsel, looks at the cost of Brexit.

Europe’s financial rules are shifting under the feet of Brexit negotiators, as the EU moves to harden its regulatory regime in ways that could shut out the City of London after the UK leaves the union.

Stephen Adams, partner at Global Counsel, the advisory group, said: “In some ways this is a reminder that there is a basic asymmetry in the EU-UK relationship. It is their market and they will set the terms for accessing it. Clearly, not everybody in the single market believes that London’s place as Europe’s financial centre is inevitable or eternal.”

Boston Consulting Group, law firm Herbert Smith Freehills and advisory group Global Counsel teamed up to consider the potential impact on three different sectors if the UK left both the EU single market and the EU customs union without any new trade agreements in place.

After looking at a fictional automobile manufacturer, fashion retailer and chocolatier, the group concluded that the carmaker would be hit the hardest, while the retailer would feel the least impact.

Donald Trump’s electoral win has boosted populist stances in Europe and created uncertainty for the banking sector.

Advisor at think tank Global Counsel, David Capparelli, comments: “I think the move towards a more protectionist stance was on the way for quite a long time before the Trump victory. If you look at the French proposal that was announced a couple of days ago on how to reform EU trade policy it does go in that direction. But I’m not entirely sure this is going to translate into a more protectionist policy – but a less liberal trade policy.”

Will the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House affect the departure of the U.K. from the European Union?

To Stephen Adams, a partner at Global Counsel, Trump’s victory means EU governments will try to “squeeze the U.K. harder to contain domestic populism” by showing there is nothing to be gained by leaving the EU.

Only if Trump’s transition to power is messy enough to spook financial markets could the U.K. and EU agree to better “choreograph” when and how to start the talks, he said.

One major sticking point to the CETA deal has been the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism, which will allow companies to sue countries over any new law or policy that they consider to be discriminatory towards their investments.

“The ISDS issue has been one of the primary drivers of growing concerted opposition to CETA, TTIP and the wider EU FTA agenda. It is fair to assume that carving out investor protection chapters from FTA negotiations would make the latter far less contentious,” Daniel Capparelli of advisory firm Global Counsel tells GTR.

The events of the last month have been a sobering wake-up call, both to businesses which believed the government was bound to protect their interests, and those in Britain and on the continent who doubted the government's resolve to break with the European market. In the bold rhetoric of the Prime Minister's speech and in the tenor of new policies such as the "naming and shaming" of businesses that employed foreign workers, the current administration seemed to put deliberate distance between itself and cosmopolitan, business interests.